Locals Plan for Storm, Mamaroneck Issues Predictions

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from the Village of Mamaroneck-

The Village has been tracking for several days now the predictions of a coastal storm, aka Noreaster, that could impact our area on Tuesday, March 14, 2017.  

Temperatures will be a key determinant for whether this storm is largely snow or rain.  At this time, based on the predictions for colder weather in our area on Tuesday, the forecast from the National Weather Service is for heavy snow on Tuesday, starting just after midnight on Tuesday morning, and continuing through the day.  Weather predictions from other weather services have been fluctuating wildly due to the complexity of the storm, and the dependence on the storm track, so we are following the lead of the National Weather Service.

At this time, coastal areas are predicted to receive less snow, in the range of a foot (12″) or less.  Areas north and west of New York City, especially above the I-287 corridor, are predicted to receive more snow, in the ranges of a foot or more of snow (12″ to 15″ or more).  Winds will gust between 40-50 MPH along the coastal areas.  

Since the forecasts have been fluctuating significantly, they could continue to fluctuate and change over the next 48 hours.  Here is a summary of the Village’s preparations:

  • The Village has begun pre-planning this past week for the storm, and will have all equipment prepared, snow-plows and salter trucks ready, including our salt-brine truck.  
  • All our snow removal staff in the Public Works and Parks Department are ready.  
  • There is a very high probability that schools will be closed.
  • The Village will pre-plan on Monday afternoon and will make a determination early Tuesday morning whether Village offices are closed or not, while all safety-sensitive operations continue (e.g. Police, Fire, DPW, etc.).

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Update from the National Weather Service:

Confidence is increasing for a strong coastal storm to bring significant snow and strong winds across the area Monday Night into Tuesday Night.

Potential exists for:

  • Significant snowfall (1 ft +) with blizzard conditions
  • Wind gusts of 40-50 mph along the coast
  • Minor to possibly moderate coastal impacts with Tuesday high tide cycles

Uncertainty and Storm Scenarios

  • There is considerable model spread in the track of the storm this far out due to a complex interaction between northern and southern jet energies.
  • A storm track closer to the coast would:

Increase chance for heavy snow to mix with or change to heavy rain along the coast

Increase potential for damaging wind gusts

Increase potential for moderate coastal flooding

  • A storm track farther offshore would:

Increase potential for a widespread 1+ ft snowfall with blizzard conditions

Decrease potential for moderate coastal flooding

Before then…Unseasonably cold temperatures of 15 to 20 degrees below normal will continue into Monday.

Marine Hazards (Monday Night into Tuesday Night)

  • Potential for gale force gusts 34-47 kt on nearshore waters.
  • Potential for storm force gusts 48-62 kt on the ocean waters south of Long Island.
  • Seas could build to 15+ feet on the ocean waters Tuesday into Tuesday Night and 3 to 6 feet on Long Island Sound.

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